The 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union was the detonator of the
serious Armenian economic decline. Armenia was deprived of its traditional
outlets, since under the Soviet planning system, 90 % of its
economic relations were performed within the Soviet Union, and more
particularly with Russia and the Ukraine in the defense sector.
In 1992, the Armenian government had however launched an ambitious
project financed by the IMF, followed by an economic policy of stabilization,
and then by a new ambitious economic program in 1994. During these
years, the country suffered a four-digit inflation and the GDP fall
exceeded 20 % per year.
Thanks to the liberalization of the national economy and trade,
to a orthodox economic policy and to a strong international aid
assistance, in particular coming from the United States, Armenia
managed to reduce inflation, to stabilize the exchange rate of the
dram and especially to achieve a very strong GDP growth rate. The
current account deficit has decreased thanks to the growth of exports
and the high level of transfers of incomes coming from the diaspora.
Regarding energy, Armenia remains dependent on Russia and on its
other suppliers. The economic development is also slowed down by
the lack of reorganization of the industry and of the Public administration,
in particular with regard to the weakness of the tax collection.
( USD millions) |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002
|
2003(f) |
2004(f) |
Economic growth (%) |
3.3 |
6 |
9.6 |
12.9 |
10 |
8 |
Inflation (%) |
2.1 |
0.4 |
2.9 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
Public-sector balance
(%GDP) |
-7.2 |
-6.4 |
-3.8 |
-0.6 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
Exports |
247 |
310 |
353 |
458 |
583 |
639 |
Imports |
721 |
773 |
773 |
847 |
945 |
1014 |
Trade balance |
-474 |
-463 |
-420 |
-389 |
-362 |
-375 |
Current account balance
(%GDP) |
-16.6 |
-14.5 |
-9.5 |
-8.4 |
-6.5 |
-5.9 |
Foreign debt |
855 |
862 |
905 |
1025 |
999 |
1060 |
Debt service (%Exports) |
14.3 |
10.6 |
9.7 |
10.5 |
11.6 |
6.5 |
Currency reserves (import
months) |
4.0 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
(e) estimated (f) forecast
Source: Cofacerating
|
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