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The improvement of the Armenian Economy

The 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union was the detonator of the serious Armenian economic decline. Armenia was deprived of its traditional outlets, since under the Soviet planning system, 90 % of its economic relations were performed within the Soviet Union, and more particularly with Russia and the Ukraine in the defense sector.

In 1992, the Armenian government had however launched an ambitious project financed by the IMF, followed by an economic policy of stabilization, and then by a new ambitious economic program in 1994. During these years, the country suffered a four-digit inflation and the GDP fall exceeded 20 % per year.

Thanks to the liberalization of the national economy and trade, to a orthodox economic policy and to a strong international aid assistance, in particular coming from the United States, Armenia managed to reduce inflation, to stabilize the exchange rate of the dram and especially to achieve a very strong GDP growth rate. The current account deficit has decreased thanks to the growth of exports and the high level of transfers of incomes coming from the diaspora.

Regarding energy, Armenia remains dependent on Russia and on its other suppliers. The economic development is also slowed down by the lack of reorganization of the industry and of the Public administration, in particular with regard to the weakness of the tax collection.

( USD millions)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003(f)
2004(f)
Economic growth (%)
3.3
6
9.6
12.9
10
8
Inflation (%)
2.1
0.4
2.9
2
2
3
Public-sector balance (%GDP)
-7.2
-6.4
-3.8
-0.6
-2.5
-2.5
Exports
247
310
353
458
583
639
Imports
721
773
773
847
945
1014
Trade balance
-474
-463
-420
-389
-362
-375
Current account balance (%GDP)
-16.6
-14.5
-9.5
-8.4
-6.5
-5.9
Foreign debt
855
862
905
1025
999
1060
Debt service (%Exports)
14.3
10.6
9.7
10.5
11.6
6.5
Currency reserves (import months)
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.6
4.6
(e) estimated (f) forecast

Source: Cofacerating

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